Step or Stage 7:
Make the Educated Guess (Hypothesis)
Your Problem Solution Is Now Your Working Hypothesis
Your educated guess or hypothesis is sometimes called an informed guess, a tentative theory or decision, but “working hypothesis” describes it more exactly. It is a proposed solution or the most recent definition of your problem. It is your choice of the most-likely-to-be-successful problem solution from the list of contending ones that you have evaluated. At this stage, you must:
- Describe your working hypothesis or problem solution clearly and simply.
- Be sure it has proper traits and characteristics of a hypothesis.
- Carefully predict consequences and risks of your hypothesis to be challenged in Step or Stage 8.
Desirable Characteristics or Traits of a Practical Problem Solving Hypothesis
- Consistent with existing knowledge or data, but new evidence can dislodge a prevailing theory
- Verifiable or falsifiable by testing
- Relevant, fruitful, adequate, and logically possible
- Appears to be a practical problem solving solution to the problem as defined
Working Hypothesis Used in All Fields
- As the basis for a request for a research grant
- In natural sciences, should be a tentative theory about nature
- In social sciences, should be a tentative theory about one of life’s many problems
- In other fields, should be a tentative decision, plan, diagnosis of illness, idea, design, invention, economic theory, business plan, etc.
The Method of Multiple Working Hypotheses
Decision making, social sciences, geology, and multiple causes may require the formulation of multiple working hypotheses. Consider:
- The inexact sciences may require more than one concluding hypothesis
- Effort and attention are divided among more than one
- Your problem solution may involve all or be interlocking
Practical Problem Solving Requires Prediction Consequences
In preparing for the challenge in the next step or stage, you must make predictions of why and how something will occur or the consequences and risks based on the accuracy of your hypothesis such as:
"This event will occur…"
"A decision to…will result in…"
"This experiment will show…"
"This survey or interview will reveal…"
"If this hypothesis is correct, the consequences will be…"
The degree of risk involved in the consequences
The percent of possibility of occurring
"This potential consequence or risk can be prevented by…"
"Our competition will react by…"
Computers Are a Great Help in Predicting Consequences
If a model is programmed, it will show…
An artificial intelligence program will show…
A mathematical program will determine
"Good Enough" (Bounded Rationality) Is Necessary to Use in Practical Problem Solving
Nobel Laureate Herbert A. Simon’s theory of bounded rationality says that there are computational constraints on human thinking. Thus, we often must settle for “good enough.” Similar are tolerance of ambiguity, aspiration level, most optimum not needed, satisfactory versus optional standards, adequate for problem, risk within reason, and “the search for a best value is a trade-off between accuracy desired and the resources available.” General principles to consider in your problem solution plans:
Accept uncertainty of solution
"Truth" may not exist
Consider community "standards"
Waste no time on little differences
Perfectionism - not always affordable
Rate: good - better - good enough
No excuse for sloppy work
Don’t overlook consequences of deciding on “good enough”
Your ability to judge what is “good enough” and what requires more research can affect your success in life.
Remember as You Proceed with Your Problem Solution
- At each step or stage, remember to review the “Look Back” checklist at Step or Stage 6
- Before predicting consequences, review what generated the hypothesis that is “on trial”
- A hypothesis is also called an “educated guess” because it has long been recognized that it is difficult to arrive at real “truth”
- Learn to abstract concepts about your problem solution from material you read
Next . . . Step or Stage 8: One of the reasons that the complete method of creative problem solving is self-correcting is that it requires you at the next stage to rigorously challenge your own working hypothesis.