Step or Stage 6:
Evaluate the Evidence
Problem Solutions
By now you should have a list of tentative problem solutions that are candidates for your educated guess or hypothesis. This choice, usually called the “working hypothesis,” will be presented in Step or Stage 7. It would be helpful to read the information on Step or Stage 7 to familiarize yourself with the characteristics and traits your working hypothesis must have. You should also read Step or Stage 8 to alert yourself as to how the hypothesis will have to be challenged extensively. Prepare a problem solving chart of your problem solutions.
Before Evaluating Your Problem Solutions, A Look Back Checklist
- Problem: Should it be refined or reframed?
- Goal-reference approach: Evaluate where you started, where you are now, and where you still need to go.
- Planning: Are there any changes: Any further planning needed ahead?
- Are you being observant and doing creative thinking?
- Log: Is it up to date? Are you using the right attributes, methods, technologies?
- Are you using problem solving team advisors and/or consultants? Are you alert to clues and leads?
- Are you keeping a balance between costs, benefits, and risks involved?
Screen and Evaluate Your Tentative Problem Solutions
- If data on any tentative hypothesis are insufficient, seek more information.
- Do they meet reasonable standards of acceptability?
- Should some be dropped before testing?
- Are the risks involved reasonable?
Evaluate Mentally
- Apply analytical problem solving as well as creative problem solving.
- Are your databases reliable?
- Challenge any assumptions.
- Visualize statistical or mathematical analysis.
- Make predictions for testing of your problem solutions.
Experiment & Test Your Problem Solutions
- Experiment controlling all variables.
- Use modeling, sampling, and graphs.
- Apply various computer programs.
- Design special instruments for testing.
- Test your predictions
Problem Solving Chart
Chart your solutions to weigh the evidence. Criteria can be graded by as many facets, characteristics, or angles as you desire. You can have individual problem solving charts or a combined one. Tailor your headings to fit your problem. It is advisable to have a chart on problem solving consequences of solutions, including risks involved.
Example - Possible Comparison Problem Solving Chart
| Tentative | Test Results | Suitability | Feasibility | Acceptability | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Problem Solutions | #1 | #2 | #1 | #2 | #1 | #2 | #1 | #2 |
| Solution A | Against | For | 30% | Okay | 60% | Okay | 50% | 90% |
| Solution B | For | Against | 50% | No | 80% | No | 90% | 20% |
Real World Problem Solving
Be careful as often people fall in love with their hypothesis and are reluctant or very slow to discard it even when presented with contrary evidence.
Memorize the thought expressed by Michael Moravcsik in How to Grow Science (1980):
The key is that the data we use in our thinking must be true, so far as it is possible for us to determine truths, and they must be expressed to a degree of precision that fits with the general area of our thinking.
After Evaluating and Charting Your Problem Solutions, Remember as You Proceed:
Attempt to falsify your theories as well as confirm
Play the “devil’s advocate” - criticize your own ideas and expected consequences
Tests must be repeatable by others who check your work.
Next . . . Step or Stage 7: You are now going to present your most likely solution as a working hypothesis that meets various qualifications. Based on it, you will make predictions for testing in Step or Stage 8.