Research Report P01

PREVENTION

Step or Stage 1 of SM-14, Curious Observation

Without curious observation you will not prevent problems, including such a world shattering one as the economic crisis of 2008. Prevention takes diligent observation, as the factors that may cause problems are not easily noticed. Often prevention is involved in forecasting of consequences, risks, or of actions being taken.

Problem Prevention Chart

If your responsibility covers a wide field, chart your possible problems. Make a chart like the one below.

Dangers and Consequences

These are not always easy to spot and interpret properly. Here is what Richard Fobes says in his excellent book Creative Problem Solver’s Tool Box (1993):

Connections between what someone does now and what will likely happen later aren’t always obvious, especially in these cases:

• The consequence arrives delayed, long after the action.
• The consequence is invisible
• The consequence is physically distant, and therefore not normally seen
• The consequence is indirectly, rather than directly, connected to current actions
• The consequence arises through the behavior of other people

Yet, if a negative consequence occurs, you still suffer even if “It’s their fault.”

The consequence arises because a large number of individual small contributions add together to become a large problem.

Failure to Imagine – Creative Problem Solving

Creative insight is an attribute or skill that is necessary for problem prevention. The failure to imagine will allow potential problems to go undetected. Group prevention activities could include a brainstorming session on prevention imagination and creative insight. Thinking up possible scenarios as well as worst-case ones will help develop your creative insight. Scenarios are just possible mental pictures of situations that might possibly exist or develop. They are also fantasy visualizations.

Prevention Is Commonly Used in Many Fields – What If?

What if? This is the question to ask for prevention. Preventive maintenance of equipment is a principle widely understood and taught. In the medical field preventive health practices are also widely discussed and used. Thus, the idea of prevention will not be new to you. The question is, are you using it in all fields of endeavor properly and aiding in prevention training?

Preventive Intuition

Under “Intuitive Problem Solving” I have stressed the need for a person to develop an intuitive base. A good intuitive base will guide you or help in preventive thinking. Preventive intuition is what has contributed to the success of many leaders. An intuitive base that includes lots of experience, extensive reading of other people’s experiences, good file keeping for reference purposes, and good prediction knowledge  and risk management all help in good preventive intuition.

Generate Logical Solutions – Don’t Be Illogical

Too often people fail to be logical. They have their pet theories, emotional reasons, or want things to be the way they would like to see them. But accurate use of the scientific method of problem solving requires that people analyze their thinking to be sure they are thinking logically. This avoids accepting economic bubbles that result in financial crises later.

Lack of Open Mind – You Must Suspend Judgment

Step or Stage 10 of SM-14 requires that no matter what your conclusions, you must suspend judgment and keep an open mind. This is the only way you are going to prevent unintended consequences, especially as the future can never be forecast without some degree of risk. In the real estate bubble of 2002-2008 many were certain house prices would do nothing but go up-up-up.

Personal Attributes Needed for Prevention

To be a good preventer you should develop certain personal attributes. Some of these are:

Logical Thinker

Step or Stage 11 – Action – Communication Skills Will Be Required

Preventing problems in some cases will be easily done. But in others it will be very difficult. An example is my 20 years of struggle to have the scientific method of problem solving and decision making better recognized and adequately taught at all levels of education.

Beware of Overreaction or too Much Precaution

Prevention is a great principle, but it often is carried too far. Research that should be done is stopped or outlawed. Risks that should be taken are avoided. False claims are accepted without testing or real basis. Good judgment is essential. Use of the scientific method can prevent this type of overreaction.

Prevention Summary

Authors who write about problem solving present no or too little knowledge about problem prevention, method of prevention, and consideration of what if?

A basic knowledge of the whole problem solving process such as SM-14 is needed to do a good job of prevention of problems as well as problem solution.